По данным Высшего избирательного совета, на местных выборах, проведенных в Турции 31 марта, мэром Стамбула был избран Экрем Имамоглу от оппозиционной Республиканской народной партии (РНП). Однако, несмотря на то, что со дня голосования прошло десять дней, новый градоначальник до сих пор не смог приступить к своим обязанностям.
Ввиду возражений правящей Партии справедливости и развития (ПСР) в большинстве районов Стамбула голоса начали пересчитывать заново. Естественно, вы скажете, что за это время пересчет голосов должен был бы уже быть завершен. Но нет. К пересчету голосов по некоторым районам поступают все новые и новые возражения. Президент Турции Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган и его команда, держащие в своих руках управление Стамбулом с 1994 года, не хотят отдавать город. Отчего же? Почему так важен Стамбул?
Проигрыш ставленников ПСР на местных выборах кандидатам от РНП и «Хорошей партии» при поддержке Демократической партии народов (ДПН) произвел в турецкой политике эффект землетрясения. Последовали комментарии относительно того, что Эрдоган, жестко раскритиковавший свою команду в самый первый вечер, выйдя на балкон для произнесения «победной» речи без сопровождения кого-либо из партийных боссов, дал понять, что грядут масштабные изменения в партии и правительстве. Президент впервые выступил с речью на балконе один, с ним была только его супруга Эмине.
Партия справедливости и развития потеряла очень много голосов. Говорят, что процент голосовавших за нее снизился до 35−36%. До выборов выдвигались предположения, что «ПСР покроет свое поражение голосами за Партию националистического движения (ПНД)». А что произошло сейчас? Эрдоган представил не голоса за ПСР, а голоса за коалицию «Альянс народа». В своем выступлении с балкона он ограничился лишь одной фразой: «ПСР — первая партия».
Стамбул — это наивысшая точка борьбы за выживание для политической партии. Президент неоднократно повторял это. «Говоря о Стамбуле, мы говорим о Турции в целом», — заявлял он. Этот город с 20-миллионным населением представляет собой самый большой ресурс экономики Турции, является культурным и медийным центром. Центральные офисы всех национальных телеканалов и газет расположены в Стамбуле. Турецкая политика определяется в Стамбуле. Политическая карьера Эрдогана также началась здесь.
В 1994 году он был избран мэром Стамбула от Партии благоденствия, относящейся к движению «Милли Гёрюш» («Национальный взгляд»). Всем известно, что мэрия Стамбула является финансовым источником десятков фондов, среди которых и фонды, принадлежащие сыну и дочери президента. Все они уверенно держатся на плаву благодаря деньгам мэрии. И тот, кто контролирует эти источники, обеспечивает себе преимущество. Если Стамбул перейдет в руки РПН, то станет известно, осуществляла ли ПСР незаконные траты. Перекроются краны для компаний-сторонниц на крупнейших тендерах Турции. Именно поэтому и затеяли серьезную борьбу за Стамбул.
Основной причиной создания неопределенности при помощи оспаривания результатов является желание выиграть время для разработки стратегии. Тем временем, скорее всего, планируется подготовка судебных исков по обвинению в «полном беззаконии» и «участии в организованной преступной деятельности», а также «обнаружение» связи некоторых сотрудников на избирательных участках с «террористическими организациями» и проведение операций в отношении этих людей. И после начала операций будут аннулированы итоги выборов, по крайней мере, в Стамбуле, будет проведено повторное голосование.
Но фильм уже невозможно отмотать назад. Предпринимаемые спустя столько времени ходы правительства по возвращению себе Стамбула и Анкары вызовут новую волну хаоса. Основными обсуждаемыми вопросами являются утрата доверия властями у деловых кругов и населения, крах сельскохозяйственной политики, бесполезность угроз в адрес оппозиции. Депутат Байрам Озчелик перечисляет серию ошибок:«Члены правительства некомпетентны. Кандидаты были определены неверно. Мы не смогли мобилизовать партийную организацию. Есть возражения в отношении новой системы. Люди отреагировали на политику напряженности. Существуют проблемы в муниципалитетах от ПСР. Власть измотана. Возросло недовольство в партии. Было ошибочным содержать в тюрьмах сотни тысяч людей, все это сказалось отрицательным образом. Сирийские беженцы также послужили причиной потери голосов».
Большой ошибкой ПСР и Эрдогана стала попытка добиться того, чтобы «Высший избирательный совет посчитал голоса в нашу пользу». Люди поняли, что была раскрыта какая-то интрига, и стремительно отдалились от власти. Проправительственное информационное агентство Анадолу, манипулировавшее результатами выборов, столкнулось с огромной волной критики. Как только кандидат от РНП начал набирать больше голосов, оно приостановило на 13 часов подачу актуальной информации. В сложившейся ситуации Высший избирательный совет должен выполнять свои обязанности в рамках правовых норм.
Он должен честно обнародовать итоги выборов. Если это не будет выполнено, ПСР, заявившая о том, что «Альянс народа» набрал 51,6% голосов, ПСР — первая партия Турции», полностью отдалится от своих избирателей, потому что люди хотят знать правду. Если Высший избирательный совет не предоставит честных объяснений случившемуся, престижу как Турции, так и ПСР будет нанесен непоправимый ущерб на международной арене. А все последующие негативные события будут приписаны не партии и правительству, а непосредственно Эрдогану. Весь негатив населения настигнет президента!
По моему мнению, экономический кризис и обнищание еще не полностью отобразились в решении избирателей, поскольку 31 марта прошли выборы в органы местного самоуправления. Если будет принято решение о проведении досрочных парламентских выборов — это уже будет отражено в полной мере. Нет никаких сомнений в том, что если ПСР не найдет способа решения проблем в течение предстоящих четырёх с половиной лет и продолжит движение по натоптанной дорожке, она столкнется с еще более серьезным оттоком избирателей.
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